Global grain traders have been closely tracking India's policy on grain imports as the country, a wheat exporter in recent years, was expected to import for the first time in six years.
DP Singh, chairman of the All India Grain Exporters' Association of India, said the government is not expected to take a decision before December.
"The situation is not alarming on the stocks front," he said. "The government seems to have postponed its decision for the time being and I think they will revisit it by the end of November."
The government has so far maintained that wheat and rice stocks are comfortable and rejected predictions that the country could turn to imports for the first time since 1999.
The farm ministry has pegged 2005 wheat production at 72.1 million tonnes, close to the output a year ago. Traders had expected grain imports, as production was lower than initial estimates of 75 million tonnes following some crop damage due to untimely rains and hailstorms.
India levies a 60 percent customs duty on wheat, making it unliveable for private traders to import, and the industry has been speculating the government might ease the tariffs.
In the physical market in Delhi, wheat was quoted around 840 to 850 rupees per 100 kg, nearly the same level as last year.
Singh said wheat prices were not high enough for the government to rush into imports. "So far, prices are okay. I don't think anyone is making money if you take the carrying cost and taxes into account."
But Indian wheat futures have been rising. The December wheat contract at the National Commodities and Derivatives Exchange (NCDEX) rose 8 rupees to 864 rupees per 100 kg.
November wheat was 10.80 rupees higher at 846 rupees. "The futures market can be speculative sometimes," he said. The government has been trying to manage its stocks and distribution system by replacing wheat with rice for southern and eastern states where people consume more rice.
"They have successfully managed the situation and postponed the decision to import wheat by substituting rice with wheat." The Food Ministry said on September 1, India had 11.3 million tonnes of wheat and 7.07 million tonnes of rice.
Indians tend to consume about 1.5 million tonnes of wheat a month but consumption increases in the north in the winter months, beginning November.
Singh said the country might still need around 1 million tonnes of wheat from January, as the new crop will come in the market only by April.